Many recipients, particularly those who are trying to keep up with inflation, were disappointed when SSA announced the COLA for this year in October 2024 and they believe that the increase in retirement benefits is insufficient to keep up with the rising cost of living. We must keep in mind that the COLA does not accurately represent the spending patterns of older individuals because it is determined using CPI-W.
The Elderly Consumer Price Index (CPI-E), which emphasizes medical costs a significant burden for retirees is recommended by experts. Even while Social Security is a relatively small monthly payout, it has traditionally been essential in helping seniors make ends meet. Last month, over 52 million retired recipients received an average check of $1,978.77.
Social Security COLA Increase 2026
If the 2025 cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) from Social Security disappointed you, you are not alone. Even though many seniors’ costs increased by more than this in the last year, the 2.5% benefit increase only increased the average monthly check by $49 on average. If a big part of your monthly income is derived from your benefits, it might be really aggravating. People are eagerly anticipating Social Security COLA Increase 2026 in the hopes of hearing better news. Although the precise figure will be announced on COLA 2026 Release Date, latest estimates indicate it may be higher than initially anticipated by experts.
Our 2025 COLA of 2.5% was derived from the 2.5% difference between the third-quarter averages for 2023 and 2024. Once the September CPI-W number is received on October 15, 2025, the Social Security Administration will go through the same procedure again for 2026. TSCL makes an effort to estimate COLAs using a statistical model that accounts for variables such as the national unemployment rate, the Federal Reserve interest rate, and the CPI-W figures, but there is no way to know the exact number before then. Based on latest data, it revises its forecasts once a month.
It predicted a disappointing 2.1% growth in January 2025. However, February figures increased this to 2.3%. This would increase the January 2025 average monthly payout of $1,979 to $2,025 per month. Although this might still alter either way, it is important to remember that by April 2024, TSCL’s projections for the 2025 COLA were within 0.1% of reality. Many people see a larger rise favorably because they associate a larger COLA with larger checks.
Latest COLA projections against inflation
The Senior Citizens League, a nonpartisan senior advocacy group, increased its projection of the 2026 COLA from 2.1% to 2.3% following the release of the BLS January inflation data. As a consequence, the average monthly pay for retired employees would rise by around $46 in the upcoming year. Mary Johnson, a former TSCL employee and independent Social Security and Medicare policy researcher, projects a 2.1% COLA in 2026.
A little reacceleration in the current rate of inflation is the driving force behind TSCL’s 2026 COLA projection update. Like the CPI-W, the consumer price index for all urban consumers (CPI-U), which measures inflation, increased by 0.5% in January, marking the biggest consecutive monthly increase since August 2023. The CPI-U has risen by 3% during the last 12 months.
What Social Security COLA 2026 could look like?
The Senior Citizens League estimates that the Social Security COLA in 2026 will be 2.3% based on the most recent inflation statistics. That figure may worry many older Americans, as it is a step below the COLA for 2025, but let us be clear. Considering that such increases are predicated on CPI-W third quarter data, it is far too soon to forecast a 2026 COLA. We are only in the first quarter of the year, therefore it is vital to be cautious about this estimate because a lot may happen in the months ahead.
Social Security’s 2026 COLA is on pace to make history
COLAs were largely weak throughout the 2010s. Deflation prevented COLAs from being passed along in 2010, 2011, and 2016, while the smallest positive COLA on record (0.3%) occurred in 2017 But for the past four years, Social Security benefits have increased at a faster rate than usual due to an increase in the current inflation rate. As a result, the COLA was 5.9% in 2022, 8.7% in 2023 (the highest percentage in 41 years), 3.2% in 2024, and 2.5% in 2025. In comparison, the average COLA since 2010 has been about 2.3%.
The first month that truly counts in the COLA calculation is July, which is still more than 4 months away, but monthly CPI-W readings are giving us hints about what to anticipate for the 2026 cost-of-living increase. The nonpartisan senior advocacy organization The Senior Citizens League (TSCL) revealed its early forecast for the 2026 COLA on January 15, just after the BLS published its December 2024 inflation report. TSCL predicts the 2026 COLA will be 2.1% due to deflation in energy commodities and the price of new and used cars, as well as a general slowdown in the current pace of inflation.
On the one hand, this would not be as large as the average cost-of-living adjustment during the previous 16 years and would be the lowest percentage rise in five years but it would also be a historical event. In 2025, the average Social Security recipient who was a retired worker was receiving $1,975.34 a month. For the first time, the average retired worker benefit check would exceed $2,000 if the 2026 COLA is anywhere around 2.1%.
Remember that all 68 million+ recipients of Social Security receive the same COLA. This implies that benefits for survivors and workers with impairments would also increase. If the COLA is 2.1% in 2026, the average monthly benefit for workers with disabilities would reach $1,600 for the first time, while the average monthly benefit for survivors would reach $1,575 for the first time.
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Samarth Choudhary is a Chief Editor at keralacobank.com. He has overall editorial experience of 10 years in online media. He has completed his graduation from University of California and masters in Finance from University of Dallas in year 2010. His major interest and expertise is in Finance, Taxes, Government Aid and Schemes. His Major focus is to help users to get relevant information which are published on keralacobank.com in easy and precise form.